Report Compiled: 2020-05-15

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: 514787d Max Data Date: 2020-05-14

NYT Repo Commit: 603c91c Max Data Date: 2020-05-14

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-25 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 830.8611 1235.6484 1988.8556
2020-06-25 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 624.5262 956.3814 2217.0623
2020-06-25 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 1319.0944 1935.4054 2889.7068
2020-06-25 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 885.6930 1604.4376 4197.2818
2020-06-25 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 669.0876 1374.7016 3133.0319
2020-06-25 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 661.5246 1466.7623 7443.1402
2020-06-25 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 1244.2055 1816.4855 3079.4928
2020-06-25 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 798.1495 1275.3566 3703.5388
2020-06-25 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 601.6991 894.8614 1581.5959
2020-06-25 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 709.3608 1079.2725 1942.9924
2020-06-25 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 1207.4517 1797.6431 2787.0243
2020-06-25 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 902.0725 1775.4542 4137.4247
2020-06-25 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 648.9073 926.9992 1507.0058
2020-06-25 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 578.9002 853.6103 2215.4006
2020-06-25 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 1203.4165 1678.9957 2586.7710
2020-06-25 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 889.3534 1982.9595 8673.9462
2020-05-29 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 395.4555 549.8356 672.6007
2020-05-29 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 410.0478 555.6695 747.9473
2020-05-29 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 478.2081 555.0773 735.8946
2020-05-29 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 415.9750 537.5099 648.3106